On 29th July, national elections for the Upper House (House of Councillors) will be held. The key issues are : sorting out the pension system, social equality (arising from public concern over the apparently increasing gap between rich and poor in Japan), and revising the Constitution. Debate over proposed revisions to the Constitution would have been the main focus of this election but has probably been eclipsed by the recent pension scandal when the government came under heavy fire for bureaucratic incompetence in the handling of pension data which meant that many people will receive none or only a little of the money due to them after retirement.
The LDP (Liberal Democratic Party) has been in power for an almost unbroken 50 years, though media commentators have pointed out that there seems to be little true talent in the party and that insufficient efforts have been made to groom a new generation for political leadership. This may be in part a consequence of former Prime Minister Koizumi’s success in weakening the power of the different factions within the LDP. Prime Minister Abe is from a family of politicians (his maternal grandfather was a member of Tojo Hideki’s war-time Cabinet and was tried, but not convicted, as a Class A War Criminal; his paternal grandfather was a pacifist who opposed the Great Asian War) but he is widely criticized for a lack of ability to communicate his ideas effectively to the public. His political ambitions therefore have won little support among ordinary voters.
The DPJ (Democratic Party of Japan) leader, Mr.Ozawa, has boldly stated that he will resign if the DPJ does not win a majority in the elections. Certainly, if the DPJ cannot attract significantly more support at a time when the Abe Cabinet’s approval ratings have fallen below the 30% mark, when on earth will they? Many ordinary people are keen for change after a series of scandals surrounding Prime Minister Abe’s Cabinet, but the inherent conservatism of many Japanese means that a big swing to the DPJ is by no means a matter of course.
In Japan, the Upper House does not attract as much attention as the Lower House (House of Representatives). However, this Upper House election is crucial with regard to the LDP leadership’s desire to revise the post-war constitution. According to the Constitution itself, proposed revisions must win at least two-thirds support in both Houses. If that criterion were to be satisfied then a nation-wide referendum would be held – (it is not yet clear what percentage of support for the revisions would be required in the referendum for them to be passed into law, but it is expected to be 50% of all those who vote. This is in itself a controversial issue with some insisting the figure should be 50% of all those eligible to vote). A DPJ majority in the Upper House could block Abe’s drive to reform the Constitution and would give them a stronger hand in the Lower House elections scheduled for later this year.
